ISIS state in Iraq: The Other Half of Victory

The study shows that the economy and infrastructure of Iraq and the other countries involved in "failed state" wars have now been further crippled by years of war. As a result, each conflict has changed the country to the point where it creates a need to establish a new structure of governance and economy that reflects major shifts in the population, the balance of power in each state, and its real-world post-conflict opportunities for development.

The cumulative result is to make "stability operations" a key part of grand strategy. Defeating a given mix of terrorists or insurgents requires aid and assistance efforts that look beyond the fighting and the short-term priorities of conflict termination. Negotiations and new political arrangements, emergency humanitarian aid, and recovery aid are all critical steps towards lasting stability.

But , far broader reform is necessary. Lasting conflict resolution and/or an end to violent extremism requires political, governance, and economic reform that will provide lasting reductions in the tensions between competing sects, ethnic group, tribes, and other major factions. Above all, development must look beyond the macroeconomics of each war-torn state, and focus on the economics of each fact in ways that bring enough equity and acceptance to produce lasting stability.

Iraq provides a critical test case. Defeating ISIS in Iraq will not—by itself—deal with any of Iraq's broader problems in politics, governance, and economics, and may well be the prelude to new forms of conflict between (and within) the Shiites and Sunnis, Arabs and Kurds, various extremist groups, and the remnants of ISIS.

Iraq also offers unique opportunities relative to other conflict states. It does not face the same level of post-conflict challenges as Syria, Libya, Somalia, the Sudans, Yemen, or Afghanistan. It did achieve substantial levels of development relative to other “failed states” in spite of nearly a half century of revolution, turmoil, and war—and it has substantial petroleum income.